Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Unfilled orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for unfilled orders (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 7.1 in September 2025, compared to 0.0 in August.
Sample. This monthly time series has a total of 689 data points. The time period covered by the series goes from May 1968 to September 2025.
History. Here's a snapshot of a few summary statistics calculated on the whole sample: the diffusion index had an average value of 8.7; it recorded a maximum of 55.0 in June 1983; it hit a minimum of -40.4 in August 2022.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-07-31 | 10.0 |
| 2025-08-31 | 0.0 |
| 2025-09-30 | 7.1 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will unfilled orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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