Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Unfilled orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers based in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for unfilled orders (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 7.1 in September 2025, compared to 0.0 in the previous month.
Sample. In the monthly time series shown in the chart, there are 689 observations. The series covers the time range extending from May 1968 to September 2025.
History. Here's a peek at some statistics we computed on the entire sample: the diffusion index had a mean of 8.7; it achieved a maximum of 55.0 in June 1983; it hit a trough of -40.4 in August 2022.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-07-31 | 10.0 |
| 2025-08-31 | 0.0 |
| 2025-09-30 | 7.1 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will unfilled orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
Discover the other time series included in this data set.