Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: New orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers based in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for new orders (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 42.4 in September 2025, compared to 39.2 in August.
Sample. There are 689 observations overall in the monthly time series presented in the figure above. The series covers the time range going from May 1968 to September 2025.
History. Take a look at some statistics we calculated on the full sample: the diffusion index had a mean of 35.4; it attained a maximum of 85.8 in September 1975; it hit a minimum of -42.7 in December 1973.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-07-31 | 30.0 |
| 2025-08-31 | 39.2 |
| 2025-09-30 | 42.4 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will new orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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