Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: New orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to recent survey data about manufacturing firms in the Third Federal Reserve District, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for new orders (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 62.3 in September 2026, versus 66.0 in the previous month.
Sample. There are 701 data points in the monthly time series presented in the figure above. The series covers the time range stretching from May 1968 to September 2026.
History. Check out a few summary statistics we calculated on the entire sample: the diffusion index achieved a maximum of 85.8 in September 1975; it reached its minimum of -42.7 in December 1973; it had a mean of 35.7.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | 35.1000 |
| 2026-08-31 | 66.0000 |
| 2026-09-30 | 62.3000 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will new orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
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