Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Number of employees: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers based in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for the number of employees (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 23.7 in September 2025, compared to 12.7 in August.
Sample. There are 689 data points overall in the monthly time series presented in the figure above. The period covered by the series extends from May 1968 to September 2025.
History. Here's a glimpse of a few descriptive statistics we calculated on the whole sample: the diffusion index had a mean of 15.1; it reached its highest level of 56.2 in December 2021; it registered a minimum of -27.8 in September 1990.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-07-31 | 20.1 |
| 2025-08-31 | 12.7 |
| 2025-09-30 | 23.7 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will the number of employees increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
Discover the other time series included in this data set.