Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Prices received: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers based in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for prices received (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 64.8 in September 2025, compared to 48.5 in August 2025.
Sample. This monthly time series has a total of 689 data points. The time period covered by the series stretches from May 1968 to September 2025.
History. Here's a snapshot of a few descriptive statistics we calculated on the whole sample: the diffusion index hit a trough of -21.1 in March 2009; it peaked at 83.9 in February 1977; it had a mean of 34.8.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-07-31 | 59.4 |
| 2025-08-31 | 48.5 |
| 2025-09-30 | 64.8 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will prices received increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
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