Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: New orders: Current (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers collected by the Federal Reserve in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for new orders (share of CEOs seeing a recent increase minus share reporting a decrease) was 12.4 in September 2025, compared to -1.9 in the previous month.
Sample. In the monthly series shown in the plot, there are 689 observations overall. The time period covered by the series is from May 1968 to September 2025.
History. Here's a peek at a few summary statistics computed on the entire sample: the diffusion index had an average value of 9.4; it reached its highest level of 56.2 in March 1973; it reached a trough of -70.4 in April 2020.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-07-31 | 18.4 |
| 2025-08-31 | -1.9 |
| 2025-09-30 | 12.4 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Did new orders increase or decrease in the past month? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Coincident indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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