Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Capital expenditures: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to recent survey data about manufacturing firms in the Third Federal Reserve District, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for capital expenditures (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 36.0 in September 2026, compared to 41.7 in August.
Sample. There are 701 observations overall in the monthly series displayed in the graph above. The time range covered by the series is from May 1968 to September 2026.
History. Here's a glimpse of a few descriptive statistics calculated on the entire sample: the diffusion index recorded its highest level of 52.0 in March 1973; it hit a minimum of -16.0 in December 2008; it averaged 18.7.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | 27.6000 |
| 2026-08-31 | 41.7000 |
| 2026-09-30 | 36.0000 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will capital expenditures increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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