Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: General business activity: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers based in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for general business activity (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 31.5 in September 2025, versus 25.0 in August 2025.
Sample. There are 689 records in the monthly time series displayed in the chart above. The series covers the time period stretching from May 1968 to September 2025.
History. Here's a snapshot of some simple statistics calculated on the entire sample: the diffusion index recorded a minimum of -39.7 in December 1973; it peaked at 91.0 in September 1975; it averaged 33.7.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-07-31 | 21.5 |
| 2025-08-31 | 25.0 |
| 2025-09-30 | 31.5 |
Nugget of wisdom. A plus of using FetchSeries is that we provide well-crafted metadata. Check it below to delve deeper into the properties of the time series that you are exploring.
Not for investment purposes. Information published on this web site is not not supposed to be used for investment purposes or as a basis for making financial decisions. Users should obtain professional advice and do their own independent due diligence before taking any financial risk.
Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will general business activity increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
Discover the other time series included in this data set.