Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: General business activity: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers based in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for general business activity (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 52.9 in September 2026, compared to 73.6 in August.
Sample. In this monthly series, there are 701 records in total. The series covers the span of time extending from May 1968 to September 2026.
History. Check out some statistics we computed on the whole sample: the diffusion index reached a maximum of 91.0 in September 1975; it reached its minimum of -39.7 in December 1973; it had a mean value of 33.9.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | 34.4000 |
| 2026-08-31 | 73.6000 |
| 2026-09-30 | 52.9000 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will general business activity increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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