Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: General business activity: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to recent survey data about manufacturing firms in the Third Federal Reserve District, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for general business activity (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 31.5 in September 2025, compared to 25.0 in the previous month.
Sample. There are 689 records overall in the monthly series presented in the graph above. The time range covered by the series extends from May 1968 to September 2025.
History. Here’s a quick look at some statistics computed on the entire sample: the diffusion index was equal on average to 33.7; it reached its lowest level of -39.7 in December 1973; it achieved a maximum of 91.0 in September 1975.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-07-31 | 21.5 |
| 2025-08-31 | 25.0 |
| 2025-09-30 | 31.5 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will general business activity increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
Discover the other time series included in this data set.