Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Prices paid: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to recent survey data about manufacturing firms in the Third Federal Reserve District, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for prices paid (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 76.0 in September 2026, versus 62.5 in the previous month.
Sample. There are 701 observations overall in the monthly time series displayed in the figure above. The time range covered by the series stretches from May 1968 to September 2026.
History. Here’s a quick look at a few statistics computed on the full sample: the diffusion index registered a minimum of -19.7 in December 2008; it hit a maximum of 96.0 in May 1977; it had a mean value of 51.0.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | 58.6000 |
| 2026-08-31 | 62.5000 |
| 2026-09-30 | 76.0000 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will prices paid increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
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