Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Prices paid: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers collected by the Federal Reserve in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for prices paid (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 75.0 in September 2025, versus 69.2 in August.
Sample. The monthly series displayed in the chart has a total of 689 records. The span of time covered by the series is from May 1968 to September 2025.
History. Here's a glimpse of a few simple statistics we computed on the whole sample: the diffusion index was equal on average to 50.8; it reached a maximum of 96.0 in May 1977; it recorded a minimum of -19.7 in December 2008.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-07-31 | 73.3 |
| 2025-08-31 | 69.2 |
| 2025-09-30 | 75.0 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will prices paid increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
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