Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Prices paid: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for prices paid (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 75.0 in September 2025, compared to 69.2 in August 2025.
Sample. There are 689 data points overall in the monthly series shown in the chart above. The span of time covered by the series is from May 1968 to September 2025.
History. Check out a few summary statistics calculated on the entire sample: the diffusion index hit a peak of 96.0 in May 1977; it recorded a bottom of -19.7 in December 2008; it averaged 50.8.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-07-31 | 73.3 |
| 2025-08-31 | 69.2 |
| 2025-09-30 | 75.0 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will prices paid increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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