Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Shipments: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to recent survey data about manufacturing firms in the Third Federal Reserve District, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for shipments (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 61.1 in September 2026, compared to 63.5 in the previous month.
Sample. There are 701 records in the monthly time series displayed in the plot above. The series covers the time period extending from May 1968 to September 2026.
History. Here’s a quick look at some simple statistics we calculated on the entire sample: the diffusion index was equal on average to 35.3; it hit a peak of 76.3 in June 1983; it registered a minimum of -28.7 in December 1973.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | 39.3000 |
| 2026-08-31 | 63.5000 |
| 2026-09-30 | 61.1000 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will shipments increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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