Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Shipments: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to recent survey data about manufacturing firms in the Third Federal Reserve District, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for shipments (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 31.0 in September 2025, compared to 40.3 in the previous month.
Sample. The monthly series plotted above has a total of 689 data points. The series covers the time span stretching from May 1968 to September 2025.
History. Here's a snapshot of a few simple statistics calculated on the full sample: the diffusion index had a mean of 35.0; it recorded a minimum of -28.7 in December 1973; it attained a maximum of 76.3 in June 1983.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-07-31 | 23.6 |
| 2025-08-31 | 40.3 |
| 2025-09-30 | 31.0 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will shipments increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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