Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Shipments: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers based in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for shipments (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 31.0 in September 2025, compared to 40.3 in August.
Sample. In this monthly series, there are 689 records in total. The series covers the span of time going from May 1968 to September 2025.
History. Here are a few simple statistics computed on the full sample: the diffusion index had a mean value of 35.0; it reached a minimum of -28.7 in December 1973; it peaked at 76.3 in June 1983.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-07-31 | 23.6 |
| 2025-08-31 | 40.3 |
| 2025-09-30 | 31.0 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will shipments increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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