Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: New orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers collected by the Federal Reserve in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for new orders (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 39.3 in September 2025, compared to 26.9 in August.
Sample. There are 689 observations overall in the monthly time series presented in the chart above. The series covers the period going from May 1968 to September 2025.
History. Here's a peek at a few descriptive statistics we computed on the whole sample: the diffusion index had an average value of 35.4; it reached a trough of -42.6 in December 1973; it recorded its highest level of 85.0 in April 1983.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-07-31 | 20.0 |
| 2025-08-31 | 26.9 |
| 2025-09-30 | 39.3 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will new orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
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