Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: New orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for new orders (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 39.3 in September 2025, compared to 26.9 in August.
Sample. This monthly series has 689 records in total. The series covers the span of time going from May 1968 to September 2025.
History. Take a look at a few descriptive statistics calculated on the entire sample: the diffusion index had a mean value of 35.4; it registered a minimum of -42.6 in December 1973; it reached its maximum of 85.0 in April 1983.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-07-31 | 20.0 |
| 2025-08-31 | 26.9 |
| 2025-09-30 | 39.3 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will new orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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