Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Inventories: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to recent survey data about manufacturing firms in the Third Federal Reserve District, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for inventories (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was -3.0 in September 2025, versus -14.3 in August.
Sample. There are 689 observations overall in the monthly series presented in the graph above. The series covers the span of time extending from May 1968 to September 2025.
History. Here's a snapshot of some statistics we computed on the whole sample: the diffusion index had a mean of -1.0; it reached a maximum of 41.0 in September 1983; it reached a trough of -41.8 in December 2008.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-07-31 | 10.7 |
| 2025-08-31 | -14.3 |
| 2025-09-30 | -3.0 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will inventories increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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