Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Shipments: Current (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for shipments (share of CEOs seeing a recent increase minus share reporting a decrease) was 26.1 in September 2025, compared to 4.5 in the previous month.
Sample. In this monthly time series, there are 689 records. The time period covered by the series is from May 1968 to September 2025.
History. Take a look at some descriptive statistics we calculated on the full sample: the diffusion index had a mean of 13.0; it reached its minimum of -74.8 in April 2020; it peaked at 48.3 in March 1973.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-07-31 | 23.7 |
| 2025-08-31 | 4.5 |
| 2025-09-30 | 26.1 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Did shipments increase or decrease in the past month? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Coincident indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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