Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Shipments: Current (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for shipments (share of CEOs seeing a recent increase minus share reporting a decrease) stood at 27.7 in September 2026, the same value recorded in August.
Sample. In the monthly time series shown in the chart, there are 701 records. The period covered by the series stretches from May 1968 to September 2026.
History. Here are some summary statistics computed on the entire sample: the diffusion index had an average value of 13.1; it reached its lowest level of -74.2 in April 2020; it recorded a maximum of 48.3 in March 1973.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | 33.7000 |
| 2026-08-31 | 27.7000 |
| 2026-09-30 | 27.7000 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Did shipments increase or decrease in the past month? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Coincident indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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