Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Shipments: Current (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on firms' responses to the Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey carried out by the Philadelphia FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for shipments (share of CEOs seeing a recent increase minus share reporting a decrease) was 21.4 in September 2025, compared to 11.5 in August.
Sample. There are 689 observations in the monthly series shown in the chart above. The period covered by the series goes from May 1968 to September 2025.
History. Have a look at some summary statistics computed on the full sample: the diffusion index had an average value of 13.1; it reached a maximum of 65.0 in March 1973; it recorded a minimum of -71.4 in April 2020.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-07-31 | 16.7 |
| 2025-08-31 | 11.5 |
| 2025-09-30 | 21.4 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Did shipments increase or decrease in the past month? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Coincident indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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