Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Shipments: Current (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on firms' responses to the Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey carried out by the Philadelphia FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for shipments (share of CEOs seeing a recent increase minus share reporting a decrease) was 21.4 in September 2025, compared to 11.5 in the previous month.
Sample. There are 689 data points in the monthly series shown in the graph above. The time range covered by the series goes from May 1968 to September 2025.
History. Here’s a quick look at some statistics computed on the whole sample: the diffusion index reached its maximum of 65.0 in March 1973; it registered a minimum of -71.4 in April 2020; it had a mean of 13.1.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-07-31 | 16.7 |
| 2025-08-31 | 11.5 |
| 2025-09-30 | 21.4 |
Hint. For easier exploration, we group time series into data sets and worksheets. When you navigate further down, you will find how we arranged further material linked to the statistics provided here.
Not for investment purposes. Data and analyses shared on this web site are not not supposed to be used for investment purposes or as a basis for making financial decisions. Users should seek professional advice and do independent analysis before making any financial commitments.
Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Did shipments increase or decrease in the past month? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Coincident indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
Discover the other time series included in this data set.