Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Delivery times: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers based in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for delivery times (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 0.5 in September 2025, compared to 4.5 in August 2025.
Sample. There are 689 records overall in the monthly series displayed in the chart above. The series covers the time range stretching from May 1968 to September 2025.
History. Check out a few statistics we computed on the entire sample: the diffusion index had a mean of -1.0; it recorded a maximum of 33.3 in June 1983; it hit a minimum of -32.4 in June 2022.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-07-31 | 10.4 |
| 2025-08-31 | 4.5 |
| 2025-09-30 | 0.5 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will delivery times increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
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