Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Delivery times: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for delivery times (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 0.5 in September 2025, compared to 4.5 in the previous month.
Sample. The monthly time series displayed in the plot has 689 observations in total. The series covers the time span going from May 1968 to September 2025.
History. Check out some summary statistics we calculated on the whole sample: the diffusion index hit a peak of 33.3 in June 1983; it recorded a bottom of -32.4 in June 2022; it had a mean value of -1.0.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-07-31 | 10.4 |
| 2025-08-31 | 4.5 |
| 2025-09-30 | 0.5 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will delivery times increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
Discover the other time series included in this data set.