Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Delivery times: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers based in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for delivery times (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 18.6 in September 2026, compared to 0.0 in August 2026.
Sample. There are 701 data points overall in the monthly series shown in the chart above. The series covers the time span stretching from May 1968 to September 2026.
History. Here's a peek at some descriptive statistics computed on the entire sample: the diffusion index had an average value of -0.9; it peaked at 33.3 in June 1983; it reached its lowest level of -32.4 in June 2022.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | 9.30000 |
| 2026-08-31 | 0 |
| 2026-09-30 | 18.6000 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will delivery times increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
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