Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Shipments: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for shipments (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 56.0 in September 2026, versus 58.3 in August.
Sample. There are 701 observations in the monthly time series shown in the graph above. The series covers the time range stretching from May 1968 to September 2026.
History. Here's a glimpse of a few simple statistics we computed on the full sample: the diffusion index had an average value of 35.3; it reached its lowest level of -29.0 in December 1973; it hit a peak of 78.0 in May 1983.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | 27.6000 |
| 2026-08-31 | 58.3000 |
| 2026-09-30 | 56.0000 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will shipments increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
Discover the other time series included in this data set.