Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Shipments: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on firms' responses to the Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey carried out by the Philadelphia FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for shipments (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 28.6 in September 2025, compared to 26.9 in the previous month.
Sample. In the monthly series shown in the graph, there are a total of 689 records. The time period covered by the series extends from May 1968 to September 2025.
History. Have a look at a few simple statistics computed on the entire sample: the diffusion index hit a trough of -29.0 in December 1973; it hit a maximum of 78.0 in May 1983; it averaged 35.1.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-07-31 | 16.7 |
| 2025-08-31 | 26.9 |
| 2025-09-30 | 28.6 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will shipments increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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