Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Shipments: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on firms' responses to the Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey carried out by the Philadelphia FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for shipments (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 28.6 in September 2025, versus 26.9 in the previous month.
Sample. There are 689 observations in the monthly time series shown in the chart above. The period covered by the series stretches from May 1968 to September 2025.
History. Here are a few statistics we computed on the whole sample: the diffusion index recorded its highest level of 78.0 in May 1983; it recorded a minimum of -29.0 in December 1973; it averaged 35.1.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-07-31 | 16.7 |
| 2025-08-31 | 26.9 |
| 2025-09-30 | 28.6 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will shipments increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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