Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Prices received: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for prices received (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 76.0 in September 2026, compared to 58.3 in August.
Sample. The monthly time series presented in the figure has 701 observations. The series covers the period stretching from May 1968 to September 2026.
History. Here’s a quick look at a few descriptive statistics we computed on the entire sample: the diffusion index hit a peak of 84.0 in April 1981; it reached its minimum of -20.3 in March 2009; it averaged 35.2.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | 37.9000 |
| 2026-08-31 | 58.3000 |
| 2026-09-30 | 76.0000 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will prices received increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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