Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Prices received: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on firms' responses to the Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey carried out by the Philadelphia FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for prices received (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 67.9 in September 2025, compared to 50.0 in the previous month.
Sample. In the monthly series plotted above, there are 689 observations. The series covers the time span extending from May 1968 to September 2025.
History. Have a look at some summary statistics we calculated on the full sample: the diffusion index recorded its highest level of 84.0 in April 1981; it recorded a minimum of -20.3 in March 2009; it averaged 34.8.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-07-31 | 53.3 |
| 2025-08-31 | 50.0 |
| 2025-09-30 | 67.9 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will prices received increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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