Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Delivery times: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers based in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for delivery times (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 16.0 in September 2026, versus -4.2 in the previous month.
Sample. There are 701 records overall in the monthly series displayed in the graph above. The series covers the time range extending from May 1968 to September 2026.
History. Here's a glimpse of a few simple statistics we calculated on the whole sample: the diffusion index hit a minimum of -39.6 in June 2022; it recorded a maximum of 28.0 in June 1983; it had an average value of -0.9.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | 6.90000 |
| 2026-08-31 | -4.20000 |
| 2026-09-30 | 16.0000 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will delivery times increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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