Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Number of employees: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers based in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for the number of employees (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 21.4 in September 2025, versus 7.7 in August 2025.
Sample. There are 689 observations overall in the monthly series shown in the plot above. The series covers the time period going from May 1968 to September 2025.
History. Take a look at some statistics computed on the full sample: the diffusion index averaged 15.1; it recorded its maximum of 61.2 in December 2021; it recorded a bottom of -33.4 in September 1990.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-07-31 | 16.7 |
| 2025-08-31 | 7.7 |
| 2025-09-30 | 21.4 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will the number of employees increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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