Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Inventories: Current (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to recent survey data about manufacturing firms in the Third Federal Reserve District, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for inventories (share of CEOs seeing a recent increase minus share reporting a decrease) stood at 15.0 in September 2025, compared to -6.2 in August.
Sample. There are 689 records overall in the monthly series presented in the graph above. The series covers the period stretching from May 1968 to September 2025.
History. Here are a few summary statistics computed on the entire sample: the diffusion index had a mean of -5.1; it recorded a bottom of -52.2 in March 2009; it recorded its highest level of 27.9 in March 1973.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-07-31 | -1.3 |
| 2025-08-31 | -6.2 |
| 2025-09-30 | 15.0 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Did inventories increase or decrease in the past month? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Coincident indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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