Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: General business activity: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on firms' responses to the Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey carried out by the Philadelphia FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for general business activity (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 28.6 in September 2025, compared to 11.5 in August 2025.
Sample. There are 689 records in the monthly series shown in the chart above. The time range covered by the series extends from May 1968 to September 2025.
History. Here are a few descriptive statistics we computed on the full sample: the diffusion index had a mean value of 33.7; it recorded a bottom of -49.0 in December 1973; it reached its maximum of 90.6 in June 1975.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-07-31 | 20.0 |
| 2025-08-31 | 11.5 |
| 2025-09-30 | 28.6 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will general business activity increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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