Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: General business activity: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to recent survey data about manufacturing firms in the Third Federal Reserve District, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for general business activity (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 48.0 in September 2026, compared to 58.3 in August 2026.
Sample. In this monthly time series, there are 701 records. The time period covered by the series extends from May 1968 to September 2026.
History. Here's a peek at a few statistics we calculated on the full sample: the diffusion index was equal on average to 33.9; it recorded a minimum of -49.0 in December 1973; it reached a maximum of 90.6 in June 1975.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | 31.0000 |
| 2026-08-31 | 58.3000 |
| 2026-09-30 | 48.0000 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will general business activity increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
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