Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Prices paid: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers based in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for prices paid (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 69.8 in September 2025, versus 68.4 in August.
Sample. In this monthly time series, there are 689 records. The series covers the span of time stretching from May 1968 to September 2025.
History. Check out some simple statistics we calculated on the entire sample: the diffusion index was equal on average to 50.7; it achieved a maximum of 97.8 in May 1977; it reached its lowest level of -20.4 in December 2008.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-07-31 | 75.3 |
| 2025-08-31 | 68.4 |
| 2025-09-30 | 69.8 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will prices paid increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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