Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Prices paid: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers based in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for prices paid (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 69.8 in September 2025, versus 68.4 in August.
Sample. The monthly series presented in the graph has 689 observations overall. The period covered by the series goes from May 1968 to September 2025.
History. Here’s a quick look at some descriptive statistics computed on the whole sample: the diffusion index hit a maximum of 97.8 in May 1977; it reached its minimum of -20.4 in December 2008; it had an average value of 50.7.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-07-31 | 75.3 |
| 2025-08-31 | 68.4 |
| 2025-09-30 | 69.8 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will prices paid increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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