Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Capital expenditures: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to recent survey data about manufacturing firms in the Third Federal Reserve District, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for capital expenditures (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 12.5 in September 2025, versus 38.4 in August 2025.
Sample. There are 689 observations in the monthly time series displayed in the plot above. The time span covered by the series is from May 1968 to September 2025.
History. Here's a peek at a few statistics calculated on the whole sample: the diffusion index averaged 18.5; it recorded its maximum of 51.1 in March 1973; it reached a minimum of -18.7 in December 2008.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-07-31 | 17.1 |
| 2025-08-31 | 38.4 |
| 2025-09-30 | 12.5 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will capital expenditures increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
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