Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Capital expenditures: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers based in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for capital expenditures (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 12.5 in September 2025, compared to 38.4 in August 2025.
Sample. The monthly series displayed in the chart has 689 records. The period covered by the series extends from May 1968 to September 2025.
History. Here's a glimpse of some simple statistics computed on the whole sample: the diffusion index hit a minimum of -18.7 in December 2008; it hit a peak of 51.1 in March 1973; it was equal on average to 18.5.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-07-31 | 17.1 |
| 2025-08-31 | 38.4 |
| 2025-09-30 | 12.5 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will capital expenditures increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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