Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Unfilled orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to recent survey data about manufacturing firms in the Third Federal Reserve District, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for unfilled orders (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 12.0 in September 2025, compared to 7.7 in August 2025.
Sample. There are 689 observations overall in the monthly time series displayed in the chart above. The time range covered by the series goes from May 1968 to September 2025.
History. Here are a few statistics computed on the whole sample: the diffusion index reached a trough of -41.5 in December 1973; it peaked at 58.4 in June 1983; it had an average value of 8.8.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-07-31 | 18.4 |
| 2025-08-31 | 7.7 |
| 2025-09-30 | 12.0 |
Tip. We group indicators into data sets and worksheets for easier exploration. When you navigate further down, you will discover how we structured further information linked to the statistics published here.
Not for investment purposes. Data available on FetchSeries are not intended for investment purposes or as a basis for making financial decisions. Users should seek professional advice and do their own independent due diligence before pledging money to any investment.
Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will unfilled orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
Discover the other time series included in this data set.