Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: Unfilled orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Philly FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Philly FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on firms' responses to the Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey carried out by the Philadelphia FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for unfilled orders (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 12.0 in September 2025, compared to 7.7 in August.
Sample. This monthly series has 689 records in total. The series covers the period extending from May 1968 to September 2025.
History. Here's a glimpse of a few summary statistics we computed on the whole sample: the diffusion index averaged 8.8; it achieved a maximum of 58.4 in June 1983; it registered a minimum of -41.5 in December 1973.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-07-31 | 18.4 |
| 2025-08-31 | 7.7 |
| 2025-09-30 | 12.0 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will unfilled orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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