Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Uncertainty about the outlook: Current (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for the uncertainty about the outlook (share of CEOs seeing a recent increase minus share reporting a decrease) was 11.3 in September 2026, compared to 8.7 in the previous month.
Sample. The monthly time series presented in the plot has a total of 105 data points. The series covers the time range going from January 2018 to September 2026.
History. Have a look at some summary statistics we computed on the whole sample: the diffusion index averaged 16.6; it hit a peak of 62.6 in March 2020; it reached a minimum of -8.3 in January 2018.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | 6.40000 |
| 2026-08-31 | 8.70000 |
| 2026-09-30 | 11.3000 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Did uncertainty about the outlook increase or decrease in the past month? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Coincident indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
Discover the other time series included in this data set.