Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Uncertainty about the outlook: Current (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers based in Texas, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for the uncertainty about the outlook (share of CEOs seeing a recent increase minus share reporting a decrease) was 18.3 in August 2025, compared to 11.2 in July 2025.
Sample. This monthly time series has 92 data points. The span of time covered by the series goes from January 2018 to August 2025.
History. Here are a few descriptive statistics computed on the full sample: the diffusion index hit a trough of -8.3 in January 2018; it reached its maximum of 62.6 in March 2020; it had a mean of 17.2.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-06-30 | 15.2 |
| 2025-07-31 | 11.2 |
| 2025-08-31 | 18.3 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Did uncertainty about the outlook increase or decrease in the past month? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Coincident indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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