Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Production: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to recent survey data about manufacturing firms in Texas, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for production (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share reporting a decrease) stood at 31.6 in August 2025, compared to 22.7 in the previous month.
Sample. In the monthly time series displayed in the chart, there are 254 observations. The time range covered by the series stretches from June 2004 to August 2025.
History. Here are some descriptive statistics we computed on the entire sample: the diffusion index had a mean value of 36.0; it reached its minimum of -15.6 in March 2020; it reached its highest level of 70.0 in November 2004.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-06-30 | 15.8 |
| 2025-07-31 | 22.7 |
| 2025-08-31 | 31.6 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will production increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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