Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Production: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on firms' responses to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey carried out by the Dallas FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for production (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share reporting a decrease) was 35.1 in September 2026, compared to 33.4 in the previous month.
Sample. There are 267 observations overall in the monthly series shown in the graph above. The time period covered by the series is from June 2004 to September 2026.
History. Take a look at some simple statistics we computed on the full sample: the diffusion index recorded a maximum of 70.0 in November 2004; it reached a trough of -15.6 in March 2020; it averaged 35.9.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | 27.8000 |
| 2026-08-31 | 33.4000 |
| 2026-09-30 | 35.1000 |
Hint. For easier exploration, we organize series into data sets and worksheets. If you navigate further down, you will discover how we structured further material linked to the statistics published here.
Not for investment purposes. Data published on this web site are not suitable for investment purposes or other financial decisions. Users should consult expert advice and perform their own independent due diligence before making any financial commitments.
Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will production increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
Discover the other time series included in this data set.