Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Production: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers based in Texas, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for production (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share reporting a decrease) stood at 31.6 in August 2025, versus 22.7 in July.
Sample. There are 254 data points overall in the monthly time series presented in the figure above. The time period covered by the series stretches from June 2004 to August 2025.
History. Here's a peek at a few descriptive statistics computed on the entire sample: the diffusion index had a mean value of 36.0; it reached its highest level of 70.0 in November 2004; it hit a minimum of -15.6 in March 2020.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-06-30 | 15.8 |
| 2025-07-31 | 22.7 |
| 2025-08-31 | 31.6 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will production increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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