Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Growth rate of orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on firms' responses to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey carried out by the Dallas FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for the growth rate of orders (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share reporting a decrease) stood at 21.6 in August 2025, versus 10.7 in July 2025.
Sample. This monthly series has 254 records. The period covered by the series is from June 2004 to August 2025.
History. Take a look at a few simple statistics we calculated on the whole sample: the diffusion index averaged 24.6; it hit a minimum of -19.5 in March 2020; it reached its maximum of 53.7 in January 2017.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-06-30 | 9.1 |
| 2025-07-31 | 10.7 |
| 2025-08-31 | 21.6 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will the growth rate of orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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