Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Shipments: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers based in Texas, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for shipments (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 30.3 in August 2025, compared to 14.8 in July 2025.
Sample. There are 254 observations overall in the monthly time series presented in the plot above. The series covers the time range stretching from June 2004 to August 2025.
History. Here's a peek at a few descriptive statistics we calculated on the entire sample: the diffusion index had a mean of 34.4; it hit a peak of 68.8 in February 2006; it recorded a minimum of -19.6 in March 2020.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-06-30 | 18.6 |
| 2025-07-31 | 14.8 |
| 2025-08-31 | 30.3 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will shipments increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
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