Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Shipments: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on firms' responses to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey carried out by the Dallas FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for shipments (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 35.1 in September 2026, versus 39.4 in August.
Sample. In this monthly series, there are 267 observations in total. The series covers the time period going from June 2004 to September 2026.
History. Here are a few simple statistics we computed on the whole sample: the diffusion index had an average value of 34.2; it reached its highest level of 68.8 in February 2006; it recorded a bottom of -19.6 in March 2020.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | 24.6000 |
| 2026-08-31 | 39.4000 |
| 2026-09-30 | 35.1000 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will shipments increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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