Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Shipments: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for shipments (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 30.3 in August 2025, compared to 14.8 in July.
Sample. In the monthly time series presented in the chart, there are 254 data points in total. The series covers the time period going from June 2004 to August 2025.
History. Here's a glimpse of a few simple statistics computed on the full sample: the diffusion index registered a minimum of -19.6 in March 2020; it hit a peak of 68.8 in February 2006; it had a mean of 34.4.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-06-30 | 18.6 |
| 2025-07-31 | 14.8 |
| 2025-08-31 | 30.3 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will shipments increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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