Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: New orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on firms' responses to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey carried out by the Dallas FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for new orders (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 28.9 in August 2025, versus 17.3 in July.
Sample. There are 254 records overall in the monthly series presented in the chart above. The time range covered by the series extends from June 2004 to August 2025.
History. Here's a glimpse of some descriptive statistics computed on the full sample: the diffusion index had a mean of 33.4; it reached its lowest level of -19.6 in March 2020; it reached its maximum of 70.0 in November 2004.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-06-30 | 15.6 |
| 2025-07-31 | 17.3 |
| 2025-08-31 | 28.9 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will new orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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