Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: New orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to recent survey data about manufacturing firms in Texas, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for new orders (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 28.9 in August 2025, compared to 17.3 in July.
Sample. This monthly series has 254 observations overall. The span of time covered by the series goes from June 2004 to August 2025.
History. Here's a snapshot of a few simple statistics calculated on the full sample: the diffusion index reached its minimum of -19.6 in March 2020; it reached its highest level of 70.0 in November 2004; it had a mean of 33.4.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-06-30 | 15.6 |
| 2025-07-31 | 17.3 |
| 2025-08-31 | 28.9 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will new orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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