Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Inventories: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers collected by the Federal Reserve in Texas, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for inventories (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at -1.3 in August 2025, versus -5.4 in July.
Sample. There are 254 data points overall in the monthly series shown in the figure above. The series covers the time span going from June 2004 to August 2025.
History. Here's a peek at a few statistics we computed on the entire sample: the diffusion index recorded its highest level of 24.5 in June 2021; it recorded a bottom of -25.8 in October 2008; it was equal on average to -0.2.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-06-30 | -2.6 |
| 2025-07-31 | -5.4 |
| 2025-08-31 | -1.3 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will finished goods inventories increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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