Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Inventories: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for inventories (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was -1.3 in August 2025, compared to -5.4 in July.
Sample. There are 255 observations in the monthly time series shown in the graph above. The time period covered by the series is from June 2004 to August 2025.
History. Here's a glimpse of a few descriptive statistics computed on the entire sample: the diffusion index had an average value of -0.2; it hit a maximum of 24.5 in June 2021; it recorded a minimum of -25.8 in October 2008.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-06-30 | -2.6 |
| 2025-07-31 | -5.4 |
| 2025-08-31 | -1.3 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will finished goods inventories increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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