Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Production: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers collected by the Federal Reserve in Texas, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for production (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share reporting a decrease) stood at 40.4 in August 2025, compared to 30.3 in the previous month.
Sample. The monthly series shown in the figure has a total of 255 observations. The time span covered by the series is from June 2004 to August 2025.
History. Here’s a quick look at some summary statistics computed on the whole sample: the diffusion index reached a minimum of -18.6 in March 2020; it hit a peak of 73.3 in September 2004; it was equal on average to 36.1.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-06-30 | 22.6 |
| 2025-07-31 | 30.3 |
| 2025-08-31 | 40.4 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will production increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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