Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Production: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on firms' responses to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey carried out by the Dallas FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for production (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share reporting a decrease) was 40.3 in September 2026, versus 40.9 in the previous month.
Sample. In this monthly time series, there are 268 data points in total. The series covers the period going from June 2004 to September 2026.
History. Check out some simple statistics we calculated on the full sample: the diffusion index averaged 36.0; it reached a trough of -18.6 in March 2020; it peaked at 73.1 in September 2004.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | 34.6000 |
| 2026-08-31 | 40.9000 |
| 2026-09-30 | 40.3000 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will production increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
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