Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: New orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers collected by the Federal Reserve in Texas, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for new orders (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 36.0 in August 2025, compared to 23.7 in July 2025.
Sample. There are 255 observations overall in the monthly time series presented in the chart above. The series covers the span of time extending from June 2004 to August 2025.
History. Here’s a quick look at some descriptive statistics we calculated on the entire sample: the diffusion index had a mean value of 33.5; it reached a trough of -21.2 in March 2020; it hit a peak of 68.6 in November 2004.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-06-30 | 22.8 |
| 2025-07-31 | 23.7 |
| 2025-08-31 | 36.0 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will new orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
Discover the other time series included in this data set.