Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: General business activity: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers collected by the Federal Reserve in Texas, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for general business activity (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 24.8 in August 2025, compared to 19.0 in July 2025.
Sample. This monthly series has a total of 255 records. The time span covered by the series stretches from June 2004 to August 2025.
History. Here are a few descriptive statistics computed on the whole sample: the diffusion index hit a peak of 55.1 in August 2004; it recorded a bottom of -47.6 in November 2008; it had a mean value of 12.4.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-06-30 | 14.4 |
| 2025-07-31 | 19.0 |
| 2025-08-31 | 24.8 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will general business activity increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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