Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Shipments: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to recent survey data about manufacturing firms in Texas, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for shipments (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 37.2 in August 2025, compared to 21.0 in July.
Sample. This monthly time series has 255 records in total. The series covers the time span stretching from June 2004 to August 2025.
History. Here's a peek at some simple statistics we computed on the entire sample: the diffusion index recorded a maximum of 71.2 in September 2004; it hit a minimum of -23.6 in March 2020; it had a mean of 34.5.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-06-30 | 27.3 |
| 2025-07-31 | 21.0 |
| 2025-08-31 | 37.2 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will shipments increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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