Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Shipments: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for shipments (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 39.2 in September 2026, compared to 45.2 in the previous month.
Sample. There are 268 observations in the monthly time series displayed in the graph above. The series covers the time span going from June 2004 to September 2026.
History. Have a look at a few descriptive statistics we computed on the entire sample: the diffusion index had a mean value of 34.4; it peaked at 70.9 in July 2004; it reached a minimum of -23.2 in March 2020.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | 30.3000 |
| 2026-08-31 | 45.2000 |
| 2026-09-30 | 39.2000 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will shipments increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
Discover the other time series included in this data set.