Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Shipments: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for shipments (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 37.2 in August 2025, versus 21.0 in July.
Sample. There are 255 observations in the monthly time series displayed in the chart above. The span of time covered by the series extends from June 2004 to August 2025.
History. Take a look at a few descriptive statistics we computed on the entire sample: the diffusion index averaged 34.5; it hit a maximum of 71.2 in September 2004; it recorded a minimum of -23.6 in March 2020.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-06-30 | 27.3 |
| 2025-07-31 | 21.0 |
| 2025-08-31 | 37.2 |
Hint. Our metadata often comprise references to the original sources of the time-series data shown on FetchSeries. You can use these references to search for additional information needed in your research.
Not for investment purposes. Any financial data made available on this web site are not suitable for investment purposes or as a basis for financial-decision making. Users should seek professional advice and perform independent analysis before pledging money to any investment.
Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will shipments increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
Discover the other time series included in this data set.