Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Uncertainty about the outlook: Current (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about manufacturers collected by the Federal Reserve in Texas, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for the uncertainty about the outlook (share of CEOs seeing a recent increase minus share reporting a decrease) stood at 18.3 in August 2025, compared to 11.2 in July.
Sample. In this monthly series, there are 92 records. The series covers the time period going from January 2018 to August 2025.
History. Here’s a quick look at a few simple statistics calculated on the full sample: the diffusion index recorded its maximum of 62.6 in March 2020; it recorded a minimum of -8.3 in January 2018; it averaged 17.2.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-06-30 | 15.2 |
| 2025-07-31 | 11.2 |
| 2025-08-31 | 18.3 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Did uncertainty about the outlook increase or decrease in the past month? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Coincident indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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