Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Uncertainty about the outlook: Current (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to recent survey data about manufacturing firms in Texas, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for the uncertainty about the outlook (share of CEOs seeing a recent increase minus share reporting a decrease) was 18.3 in August 2025, compared to 11.2 in July.
Sample. The monthly series displayed in the graph has 92 observations overall. The series covers the span of time going from January 2018 to August 2025.
History. Here's a peek at some simple statistics calculated on the entire sample: the diffusion index peaked at 62.6 in March 2020; it hit a trough of -8.3 in January 2018; it had a mean value of 17.2.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-06-30 | 15.2 |
| 2025-07-31 | 11.2 |
| 2025-08-31 | 18.3 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Did uncertainty about the outlook increase or decrease in the past month? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Coincident indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
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