Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Uncertainty about the outlook: Current (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Dallas FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (Dallas FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on firms' responses to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey carried out by the Dallas FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for the uncertainty about the outlook (share of CEOs seeing a recent increase minus share reporting a decrease) was 11.3 in September 2026, compared to 8.7 in the previous month.
Sample. There are 105 observations in the monthly time series presented in the graph above. The series covers the period stretching from January 2018 to September 2026.
History. Here's a snapshot of a few summary statistics calculated on the full sample: the diffusion index averaged 16.6; it recorded a minimum of -8.3 in January 2018; it recorded its highest level of 62.6 in March 2020.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | 6.40000 |
| 2026-08-31 | 8.70000 |
| 2026-09-30 | 11.3000 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Did uncertainty about the outlook increase or decrease in the past month? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Coincident indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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