Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Unfilled orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on manufacturing firms' responses to the Empire State Survey carried out by the New York FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for unfilled orders (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 5.9 in September 2026, compared to 19.6 in the previous month.
Sample. This monthly time series has 303 observations overall. The series covers the period stretching from July 2001 to September 2026.
History. Here’s a quick look at a few statistics we computed on the whole sample: the diffusion index reached its maximum of 29.8 in January 2003; it hit a trough of -23.6 in September 2022; it averaged 4.8.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | -3.00000 |
| 2026-08-31 | 19.6000 |
| 2026-09-30 | 5.90000 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will unfilled orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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