Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Shipments: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about NY-based manufacturers collected by the Federal Reserve, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for shipments (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 15.8 in September 2026, compared to 22.7 in August.
Sample. There are 303 records in the monthly series shown in the plot above. The series covers the time range extending from July 2001 to September 2026.
History. Check out a few summary statistics computed on the whole sample: the diffusion index had a mean of 34.5; it reached a minimum of -8.6 in May 2025; it achieved a maximum of 73.0 in April 2002.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | 16.0000 |
| 2026-08-31 | 22.7000 |
| 2026-09-30 | 15.8000 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will shipments increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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