Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Shipments: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on manufacturing firms' responses to the Empire State Survey carried out by the New York FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for shipments (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 4.9 in September 2025, versus 6.4 in the previous month.
Sample. In this montly series, there are 291 observations in total. The span of time covered by the series is from July 2001 to September 2025.
History. Have a look at a few simple statistics we computed on the entire sample: the diffusion index registered a minimum of -8.6 in May 2025; it recorded its maximum of 73.0 in April 2002; it averaged 34.7.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-07-31 | 5.5 |
| 2025-08-31 | 6.4 |
| 2025-09-30 | 4.9 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will shipments increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Montly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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