Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Shipments: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for shipments (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 4.9 in September 2025, compared to 6.4 in August.
Sample. There are 291 data points in the montly time series presented in the plot above. The time range covered by the series goes from July 2001 to September 2025.
History. Here's a peek at some summary statistics calculated on the full sample: the diffusion index was equal on average to 34.7; it reached its highest level of 73.0 in April 2002; it reached its lowest level of -8.6 in May 2025.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-07-31 | 5.5 |
| 2025-08-31 | 6.4 |
| 2025-09-30 | 4.9 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will shipments increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Montly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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