Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Capital expenditures: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on manufacturing firms' responses to the Empire State Survey carried out by the New York FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for capital expenditures (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was -3.9 in September 2025, compared to -0.9 in August 2025.
Sample. There are 291 data points in the montly time series shown in the figure above. The series covers the period stretching from July 2001 to September 2025.
History. Here's a glimpse of a few simple statistics calculated on the whole sample: the diffusion index had a mean value of 18.9; it hit a minimum of -19.1 in March 2009; it recorded its maximum of 42.3 in December 2003.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-07-31 | 9.2 |
| 2025-08-31 | -0.9 |
| 2025-09-30 | -3.9 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will capital expenditures increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Montly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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