Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Capital expenditures: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about NY-based manufacturers, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for capital expenditures (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was -3.9 in September 2025, compared to -0.9 in August 2025.
Sample. There are 291 records in the montly series shown in the figure above. The series covers the time span extending from July 2001 to September 2025.
History. Here’s a quick look at a few descriptive statistics calculated on the full sample: the diffusion index recorded its maximum of 42.3 in December 2003; it reached its lowest level of -19.1 in March 2009; it had an average value of 18.9.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-07-31 | 9.2 |
| 2025-08-31 | -0.9 |
| 2025-09-30 | -3.9 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will capital expenditures increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Montly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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