Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Delivery times: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for delivery times (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was -2.0 in September 2025, versus 5.5 in August.
Sample. There are 291 data points in the montly series shown in the figure above. The series covers the time span going from July 2001 to September 2025.
History. Take a look at some summary statistics we calculated on the full sample: the diffusion index hit a maximum of 18.7 in March 2022; it reached its minimum of -20.5 in September 2001; it had a mean value of -1.1.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-07-31 | -3.7 |
| 2025-08-31 | 5.5 |
| 2025-09-30 | -2.0 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will delivery times increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Montly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
Discover the other time series included in this data set.