Empire State Manufacturing Survey: New orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about NY-based manufacturers collected by the Federal Reserve, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for new orders (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 17.8 in September 2026, compared to 25.8 in August.
Sample. There are 303 records in the monthly time series shown in the figure above. The span of time covered by the series is from July 2001 to September 2026.
History. Here's a glimpse of a few descriptive statistics we calculated on the full sample: the diffusion index achieved a maximum of 73.0 in April 2002; it recorded a bottom of -15.7 in September 2001; it averaged 34.4.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | 18.0000 |
| 2026-08-31 | 25.8000 |
| 2026-09-30 | 17.8000 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will new orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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