Empire State Manufacturing Survey: New orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on manufacturing firms' responses to the Empire State Survey carried out by the New York FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for new orders (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 9.8 in September 2025, versus 3.7 in August 2025.
Sample. There are 291 data points overall in the montly time series shown in the graph above. The time span covered by the series stretches from July 2001 to September 2025.
History. Take a look at some descriptive statistics we calculated on the full sample: the diffusion index reached its minimum of -15.7 in September 2001; it peaked at 73.0 in April 2002; it had a mean value of 34.6.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-07-31 | 10.1 |
| 2025-08-31 | 3.7 |
| 2025-09-30 | 9.8 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will new orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Montly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
Discover the other time series included in this data set.