Empire State Manufacturing Survey: New orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for new orders (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 16.6 in September 2025, versus 16.3 in August.
Sample. There are 291 observations overall in the montly series presented in the chart above. The series covers the time range going from July 2001 to September 2025.
History. Here's a glimpse of some descriptive statistics computed on the whole sample: the diffusion index hit a peak of 70.3 in April 2002; it registered a minimum of -6.6 in April 2025; it had an average value of 35.0.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-07-31 | 25.3 |
| 2025-08-31 | 16.3 |
| 2025-09-30 | 16.6 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will new orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Montly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
Discover the other time series included in this data set.