Empire State Manufacturing Survey: New orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about NY-based manufacturers, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for new orders (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 16.6 in September 2025, compared to 16.3 in August.
Sample. There are 291 records overall in the montly time series shown in the graph above. The series covers the time period going from July 2001 to September 2025.
History. Have a look at a few simple statistics computed on the entire sample: the diffusion index was equal on average to 35.0; it recorded its maximum of 70.3 in April 2002; it registered a minimum of -6.6 in April 2025.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-07-31 | 25.3 |
| 2025-08-31 | 16.3 |
| 2025-09-30 | 16.6 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will new orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Montly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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