Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Shipments: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on manufacturing firms' responses to the Empire State Survey carried out by the New York FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for shipments (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 13.5 in September 2025, versus 17.9 in the previous month.
Sample. There are 291 records overall in the montly series shown in the graph above. The time period covered by the series is from July 2001 to September 2025.
History. Have a look at a few statistics computed on the full sample: the diffusion index recorded its highest level of 69.7 in April 2002; it hit a trough of -4.8 in April 2025; it had a mean value of 35.1.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-07-31 | 19.3 |
| 2025-08-31 | 17.9 |
| 2025-09-30 | 13.5 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will shipments increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Montly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
Discover the other time series included in this data set.