Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Shipments: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to recent survey data about manufacturing firms in the State of New York, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for shipments (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 25.5 in September 2026, versus 33.7 in August.
Sample. In this monthly series, there are 303 observations. The series covers the time period extending from July 2001 to September 2026.
History. Here's a snapshot of a few summary statistics we calculated on the whole sample: the diffusion index hit a maximum of 69.7 in April 2002; it hit a trough of -4.4 in January 2009; it had an average value of 34.9.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | 30.6000 |
| 2026-08-31 | 33.7000 |
| 2026-09-30 | 25.5000 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will shipments increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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