Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Inventories: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about NY-based manufacturers collected by the Federal Reserve, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for inventories (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 4.9 in September 2025, compared to 1.8 in the previous month.
Sample. The montly time series presented in the chart has 291 records in total. The time span covered by the series stretches from July 2001 to September 2025.
History. Here’s a quick look at some summary statistics we calculated on the full sample: the diffusion index reached a trough of -21.3 in April 2009; it attained a maximum of 20.3 in January 2018; it had a mean of 0.4.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-07-31 | 1.8 |
| 2025-08-31 | 1.8 |
| 2025-09-30 | 4.9 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will inventories increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Montly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
Discover the other time series included in this data set.