Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Inventories: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to recent survey data about manufacturing firms in the State of New York, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for inventories (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 4.9 in September 2025, compared to 1.8 in the previous month.
Sample. In this montly series, there are 291 records. The time span covered by the series stretches from July 2001 to September 2025.
History. Take a look at a few statistics we computed on the full sample: the diffusion index had a mean of 0.4; it reached its lowest level of -21.3 in April 2009; it achieved a maximum of 20.3 in January 2018.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-07-31 | 1.8 |
| 2025-08-31 | 1.8 |
| 2025-09-30 | 4.9 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will inventories increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Montly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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