Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Prices paid: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about NY-based manufacturers, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for prices paid (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 57.8 in September 2025, compared to 64.2 in August 2025.
Sample. There are 291 observations in the montly series displayed in the graph above. The time range covered by the series extends from July 2001 to September 2025.
History. Take a look at a few summary statistics we computed on the full sample: the diffusion index had a mean value of 41.6; it recorded its maximum of 76.7 in January 2022; it reached a trough of -26.9 in September 2001.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-07-31 | 58.7 |
| 2025-08-31 | 64.2 |
| 2025-09-30 | 57.8 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will prices paid increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Montly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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