Empire State Manufacturing Survey: General business activity: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on manufacturing firms' responses to the Empire State Survey carried out by the New York FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for general business activity (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 16.8 in September 2026, compared to 21.6 in the previous month.
Sample. There are 303 observations overall in the monthly time series displayed in the plot above. The series covers the span of time going from July 2001 to September 2026.
History. Have a look at a few simple statistics calculated on the entire sample: the diffusion index hit a minimum of -23.0 in September 2001; it recorded its highest level of 72.0 in April 2002; it had a mean of 34.1.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | 16.0000 |
| 2026-08-31 | 21.6000 |
| 2026-09-30 | 16.8000 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will general business activity increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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