Empire State Manufacturing Survey: General business activity: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about NY-based manufacturers, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for general business activity (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 3.9 in September 2025, versus 4.6 in August 2025.
Sample. In this montly series, there are a total of 291 observations. The time period covered by the series extends from July 2001 to September 2025.
History. Here’s a quick look at some descriptive statistics we calculated on the entire sample: the diffusion index hit a peak of 72.0 in April 2002; it hit a minimum of -23.0 in September 2001; it was equal on average to 34.4.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-07-31 | 11.0 |
| 2025-08-31 | 4.6 |
| 2025-09-30 | 3.9 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will general business activity increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Montly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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