Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Inventories: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to recent survey data about manufacturing firms in the State of New York, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for inventories (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 9.9 in September 2026, compared to 7.2 in August.
Sample. There are 303 records overall in the monthly time series displayed in the graph above. The period covered by the series goes from July 2001 to September 2026.
History. Here are some summary statistics we calculated on the entire sample: the diffusion index had a mean value of 0.6; it reached its lowest level of -21.3 in April 2009; it recorded its highest level of 20.3 in January 2018.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | 10.0000 |
| 2026-08-31 | 7.20000 |
| 2026-09-30 | 9.90000 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will inventories increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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