Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Inventories: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for inventories (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 4.9 in September 2025, compared to 1.8 in the previous month.
Sample. In the montly time series shown in the graph, there are 291 observations overall. The series covers the period stretching from July 2001 to September 2025.
History. Have a look at a few descriptive statistics computed on the entire sample: the diffusion index reached its lowest level of -21.3 in April 2009; it reached its maximum of 20.3 in January 2018; it had an average value of 0.4.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-07-31 | 1.8 |
| 2025-08-31 | 1.8 |
| 2025-09-30 | 4.9 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will inventories increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Montly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
Discover the other time series included in this data set.