Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Unfilled orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on manufacturing firms' responses to the Empire State Survey carried out by the New York FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for unfilled orders (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) stood at 5.9 in September 2026, compared to 19.6 in August.
Sample. There are 303 records overall in the monthly series displayed in the graph above. The period covered by the series is from July 2001 to September 2026.
History. Check out some summary statistics we calculated on the whole sample: the diffusion index hit a trough of -23.6 in September 2022; it reached its highest level of 29.8 in January 2003; it averaged 4.8.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | -3.00000 |
| 2026-08-31 | 19.6000 |
| 2026-09-30 | 5.90000 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will unfilled orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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