Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Shipments: Current (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - NY FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (NY FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on a sample of manufacturing firms surveyd by the FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for shipments (share of CEOs seeing a recent increase minus share reporting a decrease) was -17.3 in September 2025, versus 12.2 in the previous month.
Sample. There are 291 data points overall in the montly time series displayed in the graph above. The period covered by the series extends from July 2001 to September 2025.
History. Have a look at a few summary statistics computed on the full sample: the diffusion index hit a peak of 49.6 in April 2004; it reached its lowest level of -70.9 in April 2020; it had an average value of 10.3.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-07-31 | 11.5 |
| 2025-08-31 | 12.2 |
| 2025-09-30 | -17.3 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Did shipments increase or decrease in the past month? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Coincident indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Montly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Free use subject to conditions |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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