Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity: Wages: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Richmond FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity (Richmond FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on firms' responses to the Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity carried out by the Richmond FED, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for wages (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share reporting a decrease) was 50.0 in September 2026, compared to 39.0 in August 2026.
Sample. There are 353 observations in the monthly time series presented in the chart above. The series covers the time period stretching from May 1997 to September 2026.
History. Here’s a quick look at a few statistics we computed on the full sample: the diffusion index was equal on average to 37.4; it recorded its maximum of 81.0 in December 2021; it registered a minimum of -2.0 in April 2020.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | 45.0000 |
| 2026-08-31 | 39.0000 |
| 2026-09-30 | 50.0000 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will wages increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
Series in the same data set
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