Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity: New orders: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally adjusted) - United States - Richmond FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity (Richmond FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. Based on firms' responses to the Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity carried out by the Richmond FED, the seasonally adjusted diffusion index for new orders (share of CEOs seeing a future increase minus share forecasting a decrease) was 8.0 in September 2025, compared to 9.0 in the previous month.
Sample. In this monthly series, there are 259 records. The series covers the span of time extending from January 1997 to September 2025.
History. Here’s a quick look at a few summary statistics we computed on the full sample: the diffusion index reached its lowest level of -22.0 in April 2025; it recorded its highest level of 50.0 in June 2002; it averaged 28.7.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2025-07-31 | 9.0 |
| 2025-08-31 | 9.0 |
| 2025-09-30 | 8.0 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will new orders increase or decrease over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | Yes |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
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